Hello Guys,

Sorry I am so late with this gram and that I missed
both days on the weekend and chat last night too! No
excuse I am sorry to say. Life just keeps making
demands to interfere with my hobby!

I understand that chat last night centered on the age
old question "what is it worth." In this particular
case the 691/701 sets. I was going to read the chat
and comment, but have decided to comment first.

Of course we have been through these things
before--where previously rare (or unknown) notes
became available. Specifically in the area of military
money the most notable examples are British Armed
Forces Special Vouchers and Series 651 fractional MPC.
There are other examples too.

As usual in cases like this, condition is not a factor
since all of the notes are unc. Without doubt the
overriding factor is how many sets are there? At the
moment I do not know. I do not know if anyone but Mr.
Deep Source knows. I do not think that Doug, Marcus,
or Marv know. They are reporting that there are 50
sets available. That is good and more forthright than
the early resellers of BAFSV were and more than the
651 deep source has ever been. 

Actually, all of this may be premature because I have
not seen the article that is going to be in the Bank
Note Reporter in just a week or so. Perhaps that will
answer some/many/or all of the questions (but I doubt
it).

When the first set of 651 fractionals was sold, Ted
Uhl was the seller. He guaranteed that it was the only
set available and that the set was returnable if
another set came out. Ted's reputation was not the
greatest, but still it was a guarantee of sorts. Of
course we know that there were more sets and we are
quite sure that Ted was involved with those sets too,
but Ted died between the times that the sets came out
so there was not much that could be done.

The point I am trying to make is that although there
are no guarantees (hardly ever in this business), the
credibility of the individuals is important. If
Doug/Marcus/Marv were to say to the community that
they believed that 50 sets were all, the community
would by and large accept that. However, this is a
difficult statement to make because I do not think
that any of them know for sure.

Other thoughts. The idea the money is going to charity
is a good one. It does allow some good feelings, but
it still leaves unknowns about possible additional
notes/sets. Ok, I have beat that subject for quite a
while.

What are the notes worth if there are 50 sets (only)?
Well the value of the 651s comes to mind. This is far
from a perfect measure, but it is a place to start. It
seems that sets now routinely sell for about $3000 in
the open market so that would be 7-800 each. That is
what we have to pay at the moment to get one for our
collections. What can we get for our set if we have
one and want to sell it? The "wholesale" price? This
is one of those things that is seldom discussed. 

Dealers who might buy a set are subject to the same
kinds of feelings as the collectors because they just
do not know how many are available. The "buy" price is
substantially below $3000.

Are the 691/701s better (worth more) or worse (worth
less) than the 651? An interesting question. There are
so many factors. The 651s were actually issued (making
them better). The 691 and especially the 701s are more
attractive (making them better).

The fact that there are eight pieces available at one
time is a decided disadvantage because it requires
more capitol at one time.

Let's think about it another way. Mr. DS wants to sell
all 50 sets to collectors as I understand it. I think
that this is wonderful. It has many practical problems
that we might discuss another time, but for now we are
discussing WIIW.

There is little doubt that at $1000 (in all cases
talking about for the group) the entire 50 sets could
be sold to collectors quite rapidly. This would have
the added bonus of allowing some decidedly "small
time" collectors a chance to have something really
nice in their collections.

None would sell at $10,000 per group. I do not think
that there would be a sell out at $5000 or even $4000.
Now we are between 1 and 4 K. I think that we can
narrow it even more and count on a sell out at 2-3K. 

Of course the factors overlooked above about how it
will be done are involved. How will collectors be
contacted beyond those known by the current sellers?
Frankly, the higher the price and the fewer the
guarantees about quantities, the less I would be
likely to facilitate sales. First of all, dealers
generally expect to make money on a transaction. But
beyond that, it is risky for a dealer to suggest,
recommend or other wise facilitate a sale under
conditions like these. He (few female dealers) has
little to gain and lots to lose. The biggest fear is
that if more come out the buyer holds the dealer to
blame even though he was just trying to do the
collector a favor. Beyond that, the sets siphon some
money away from the collector that could have been
sent with the dealer. These are just a few of the
factors.

I am afraid that I have not answered the question.
WIIW. Perhaps I will continue this tomorrow or later
in the week. I certainly welcome your thoughts. We
will be happy to publish your thoughts here in whole
or part. 

Lots of other news too, but I will postpone any of
that till tomorrow or the next day.

I hope to make it to chat tonight. Oh yes, if you have
tried to download the chat software recently without
success, try it again. Wiz reports that there was a
gremlin that he has chased away.

Hope to see you tonight!

Fred




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please respond to this address or to fred@papermoneyworld.com

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